Poll

In the next 50 years, what do you think is the likelihood of an all-out SHTF societal collapse?

Almost positive this will happen within the next 50 years.
While not certain by any means, this is a real possibility.
Not likely to happen.
Almost positive this will not happen in the next 50 years.

Author Topic: Poll: What do you think the likelihood is of an all-out SHTF societal collapse?  (Read 15554 times)

Offline Amerigo

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I'm curious to see where everyone is at on this particular spectrum.

For this question, think Red Dawn, Patriots, Jericho (TV show), etc.  This is a widespread, massive collapse of society, resulting in anarchy for a while, then later the formation of different communities or mini-states, etc, etc.  This is the scenario where you actually need that 10,000 rounds of .223 you've stocked up.  This is the scenario where you use those Kevlar helmets.

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If you are talking about "The Book of Eli" type of societal collapse, I don't see it coming. There are too many powerlords in play nationally and internationally to have that happen. Societal collapse is evolutionary, it is a continual process. The lifestyle and technology of the 40's collapsed, as the succeeding decades. As things change, and now more rapidly, society will adapt. You have to be on your toes. Desktop PC is dead, now it is handheld, tomorrow maybe implant. Next decade perhaps the merging of tech and biology, ala techbiology, they are talking about it now.

Bad systems threaten but devour themselves by their own self-destructive nature. Good systems are based on natural law and are vulnerable and appear to retreat but because they are inherently self-sustaining they survive and eventually dominate. The strength of bad systems is the nutrients they live off of from the offal of the venerable good systems.

Socialism sucks. Capitalism pumps. In literal terms, socialism literally sucks nutrients out of the system, whereas capitalism harnesses nutrients to create. Production creates wealth, inspiration. Capitalism pumps adrenalin into the social/economic system as it inspires creativity, motivation, prosperity. It's evil sister is greed, the dark shadow of motivation, which is why capitalistic systems without a populace of a moral compass leads to despotism, anarchy, fascism.

Offline 8

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I would agree with TS on "TBOE" scenario, I think we are far more likely to have a "One Second After" type scenario, where for whatever reason the "systems" falter even for a few weeks. Not likely to be a nuke attack like cold war predictions, but could be EMP, could be Pandemic, could be "oh crap, were going into default and nobody will give us petro...." I know if I were an enemy, I would wait for a month or 2 of that before I said "Hi, I'm from the (NWO, Peoples Republic of China, etc.) Government, I'm here to help..." by then this pampered society would have Mainly starved to death, killed each other, or just be too damn weak (or curled up in the fetal position in a corner crying) to protect themselves and want 3 hot's n a cot, in trade for some very cheap labor.  It is amazing to think what even I would do to fill my belly...
So in my lifetime: Meteor crash not likely - 0.1% chance, breakdown of the grid taking everything else with it (give it more, but there is a lot of redundancy built into the system) - 2%, Financial bubble breaks causing temporary starvation and making the USA a third world country- 10%, Chipping away our freedoms and creating a NWO to "create global equality and fairness"- 25%.

Offline Amerigo

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Chipping away our freedoms and creating a NWO to "create global equality and fairness"- 25%.

To be completely honest, I think I'd prefer the entire societal collapse followed by every-man-for-himself than live a life devoid of true personal liberty.

Offline FromScratchWoman

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To be completely honest, I think I'd prefer the entire societal collapse followed by every-man-for-himself than live a life devoid of true personal liberty.

You and me both...

Offline Ken325

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Quote
To be completely honest, I think I'd prefer the entire societal collapse followed by every-man-for-himself than live a life devoid of true personal liberty.
 
But it won't work that way.  You will always have some strong man step in, offer peace in exchange for security, and take over.  We need a limited constitutional government. 

Also you are not realistically looking at the poverty and danger of this situation.  Go to Guatemala and look at the way  these people live.  In many ways it is a survivalist paradise.  Three growing seasons, lots of rain, everyone is self sufficient.  But you will also notice crushing poverty.  Girls getting married at 16 because their family cannot afford them.  School and running water are seen as a luxury.  Don't deceive yourself this lifestyle will be very hard and you will probably die early in a world like this.

Offline Chemsoldier

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To be completely honest, I think I'd prefer the entire societal collapse followed by every-man-for-himself than live a life devoid of true personal liberty.
Every man for himself is a life devoid of true personal liberty.  A total collapse means you are doing nearly everything yourself which means you are working sun up to sun down 365 a year and still likely to lose a child to typhus or a wife to childbirth once a year or so.  You are too invested in your current location to move, too busy to fight for what you believe in and have no easy means of exchange to give currency to the cause of your choice.


Offline FreeLancer

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I agree with both Chemsoldier and Ken325. I am not looking forward to Book of Eli SHTF, it would suck all around for everyone, no matter how well prepared. Fortunately, I think it's not very likely.

Offline Amerigo

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Every man for himself is a life devoid of true personal liberty.

I realize this is taking it to the extreme, but for those who have read 1984 or Animal Farm... I guess that is what I am talking about when I say I'd rather live with every-man-for-himself (and/or die) rather than live under a government that resembles those books.  Things like state-controlled media, rewriting history, a cult of personality... I honestly think I'd rather fend for myself and die early.  (I realize the US all has these qualities to a small degree, but nothing close to Iraq under Sadaam, Syria today, Soviet Russia, etc).

I do have to agree though with Ken325 - any massive collapse would result in a power vacuum that would be filled ASAP.

Keep the polling going guys and gals!  I'm interested to see what people think.  Maybe if enough people vote "Not likely to happen", I'll stop buying so much ammo.   ;D

Offline spooky-1

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I am not a "grey" kind of guy ,what I mean is I am a "black or white, "right or wrong", "this way or the other way", kind of guy. I say this because I hate our current state of up markets, down markets, good housing prices, bad housing prices, if a complete SHTF moment is what it takes to "clense" our country, so be it. if not, lets get this economy back to when things were great.

Offline mobilus

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... if a complete SHTF moment is what it takes to "clense" our country, so be it.

I don't think it'll work that way.  Ours was (was) a nation built on ideals put forth at a particular time and place. And we're hanging on to the remnants of those ideals now, with more and more lost each year.  I don't think that we could ever achieve the same thing after a total SHTF.  Too many variables exist, a different mindset of individuals and society for the most part, and a penchant toward picking the wrong leaders for decades now would not allow us to end up with the ideal republic.  Basically, would a "cleansing" insure the future as we desire it?  Probably not.  JMHO...

Offline incendiary_dan

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No option for 100% sure?  Civilizations by nature cause resource drawdown, and therefore overshoot and collapse.

Just gotta try to make the transition softer and make sure we can build decent communities later on.

Offline Pathfinder

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To be completely honest, I think I'd prefer the entire societal collapse followed by every-man-for-himself than live a life devoid of true personal liberty.

You and me both...

Be careful what you wish for. It is generally acknowledged to be a curse to tell someone to live in interesting times!

I just returned from Minot, ND. Between the Canadians messing with the cross border river and the Army Corps of Engineers mishandling (IMHO) the dams and floodgates, 4100 homes were inundated with water, some to the rafters. You want to see societal breakdown? Whole blocks of houses filled with rotting materials, many of them abandoned, windows broken, doors ripped off, sheds and decks piled up in trees; dried mud still caking the streets raising a dust cloud as you drive down the street. Minimal evidence of .gov involvement short of FEMA trailers. Piles of debris on the parkway from the people who had been able to clean part of their houses out.

I have worked in downtown Gary, IN when it was the murder capital of the US. I worked in Benton Harbor after the businesses left town - just like Gary only without so many scary, dangerous people walking around. Trust me, you do NOT want that.

To answer the OP - Book of Eli breakdown, no. 3rd world status and people starving, with the resultant outcry for .gov to save us - and then have .gov repress us more? Absolutely, and in a lot less than 50 years. I'm thinking 6 years worst case, 10 best case.

Offline Amerigo

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No option for 100% sure?  Civilizations by nature cause resource drawdown, and therefore overshoot and collapse.

I agree with you that collapse will happen eventually, but that is why I specified within the next 50 years.  I'm wondering whether or not it will happen within my lifetime.

Offline FromScratchWoman

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Well I may sound heartless but understand and accept that MANY people would die hard deaths in a complete breakdown and yes children to..possibly even my own..but I see it this way..we as a country and as a people put ourselves in the situation we let our government get out of control.

We have no clue how to live off the land we live on..and as far as third world countries well most of them wouldn't be starving if we didn't export all of their produce to american soil,and while being married at the age of 16 is taboo it wasn't this way so long ago people say kids grow up so fast these days this is bs in my opinion..
 
 But I drift from topic,I would rather live in a for yourself society knowing I have the freedom to live the best I can and if that means I have to put a man or woman under the dirt to protect my family I wouldn't pause to wait until he entered my home and hurt me before I could legally shoot to kill..

Every man for himself is a life devoid of true personal liberty.  A total collapse means you are doing nearly everything yourself which means you are working sun up to sun down 365 a year and still likely to lose a child to typhus or a wife to childbirth once a year or so.  You are too invested in your current location to move, too busy to fight for what you believe in and have no easy means of exchange to give currency to the cause of your choice.

 I have to fully disagree,God forbid we must work and tend to our own 365 days a year,I feel that every day I live is standing up and fighting for what I believe in LIVING really living..

 Keeping my family alive is standing up for that..and imo your statistic of death for women and children are a bit high as well..women die more often now from child birth in this day and age compared to even fifty years ago..

 This is due to many factors in our medical practices and well our breeding habits..a woman over the age of twenty five is more likely to die at birth than a sixteen year old especially if she has never had a child prior to twenty five..and more children die or become seriously ill from FDA approved drugs than people care to accept/ admit.

 Ramble ramble ramble I know I'm rambling..

But please take a moment to recall humans were more self sufficient in the dark ages and times of plague than we are now and we flourished after the plague wiped out 25% of the worlds population,people stopped starving(accept for the " wealthy" they had no more "poor" to grow their crops,they didn't know how and starved with chests full of gold)..

 I'm not saying I want millions of people to die from hunger and violence but people never really learn until its a matter of life and death.. currency to the cause of my choice?  In situations like this charity starts in the home..and I'm sure giving tithe in a social collapse well they probably won't be offended if you give what you can ie meat ,grain ,hand crafted goods versus useless government I.O.U. notes..

In the long run a man would trade everything give over every useless shining piece of gold..for a loaf of stale bread..so currency is just a matter of what is needed..hi ho hi ho a trading we will go! ;)

No offence intended feel free to pay me no mind.. :)


« Last Edit: August 21, 2011, 11:19:20 PM by FromScratchWoman »

Offline Docwatmo

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I believe the big kicker is going to be electricity.  As a culture we have become so dependent on it, that 2 things will determine what kind of collapse we have.

1.  If we have electricity, the government will be in control (And probably take control over production and distribution) and we'll see a 1930's style depression at the worst. (with more government control and loss of liberties to boot) But as long as electrons keep flowing, things will continue as they are now, just keep slowly getting worse economically and libertarilly (Is that a word LOL).

2.  Something takes out the grid, or the collapse happens in such a way that the electrons stop flowing.  We'll see far more reaction from people and more death and loss of unity and a much further, deeper breakdown of societal hierarchy and norms.  If that happens things will get far worse than a 1930's style depression.   We may see small pockets of SHTF totality with some "Warlord" types running things with some impunity in those further areas from the power centers, because without the communications provided by electricity the "Government" that will be there will shrink back to itself and branches to primary areas like some major city and power centers. where it has a chance to control things.   Outside that area will be considered "Too far" or "underpopulated enough" to not bother with.

Either way, its going downhill, but I don't forsee the "Movie" style apocalyptic TEOTWAWKI type situations.


Offline FromScratchWoman

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I believe the big kicker is going to be electricity.  As a culture we have become so dependent on it, that 2 things will determine what kind of collapse we have.

1.  If we have electricity, the government will be in control (And probably take control over production and distribution) and we'll see a 1930's style depression at the worst. (with more government control and loss of liberties to boot) But as long as electrons keep flowing, things will continue as they are now, just keep slowly getting worse economically and libertarilly (Is that a word LOL).

2.  Something takes out the grid, or the collapse happens in such a way that the electrons stop flowing.  We'll see far more reaction from people and more death and loss of unity and a much further, deeper breakdown of societal hierarchy and norms.  If that happens things will get far worse than a 1930's style depression.   We may see small pockets of SHTF totality with some "Warlord" types running things with some impunity in those further areas from the power centers, because without the communications provided by electricity the "Government" that will be there will shrink back to itself and branches to primary areas like some major city and power centers. where it has a chance to control things.   Outside that area will be considered "Too far" or "underpopulated enough" to not bother with.

Either way, its going downhill, but I don't forsee the "Movie" style apocalyptic TEOTWAWKI type situations.



I agree but I think people don't realise how easy a TEOTWAWKI situation would arise..considering our world in all reality is what land mass we are one..if the power grid fell..on a large scale..and was not going to be repaired on a mass for possibly decades you don't think that would be TEOTWAWKI?? Your life would never be the same..I don't think we will end up in a boe situation..right off the bat..but I find it interesting that people think it would need to be that drastic to experience TEOTWAWKI...any ONE utility or relied on luxury goes down for good well IMHO that would be considered TEOTWAWKI..

Bonnieblue2A

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I believe the big kicker is going to be electricity.  As a culture we have become so dependent on it, that 2 things will determine what kind of collapse we have.

1.  If we have electricity, the government will be in control (And probably take control over production and distribution) and we'll see a 1930's style depression at the worst. (with more government control and loss of liberties to boot) But as long as electrons keep flowing, things will continue as they are now, just keep slowly getting worse economically and libertarilly (Is that a word LOL).

2.  Something takes out the grid, or the collapse happens in such a way that the electrons stop flowing.  We'll see far more reaction from people and more death and loss of unity and a much further, deeper breakdown of societal hierarchy and norms.  If that happens things will get far worse than a 1930's style depression.   We may see small pockets of SHTF totality with some "Warlord" types running things with some impunity in those further areas from the power centers, because without the communications provided by electricity the "Government" that will be there will shrink back to itself and branches to primary areas like some major city and power centers. where it has a chance to control things.   Outside that area will be considered "Too far" or "underpopulated enough" to not bother with.

Either way, its going downhill, but I don't forsee the "Movie" style apocalyptic TEOTWAWKI type situations.

I think that at large Americans are too medicated and lazy to care about anything enough to riot on a national scale. Those who have lived exclusively off the taxpayer teat will likely riot in the streets of the large cities (think London riots) but I think that they too are lazy and will stick to the densely populated areas where the looting is easier.

We see in the news warnings of rolling blackouts as the EPA puts its new "environmental" standards into place that will devistate those living in areas largely powered by coal powered energy.

A total grid failure via cyber attack by the Chinese is very possible. They seem to be practicing and it is only a matter of time until they "get it right". I can also see our government shutting down the grid to control the ability of people to react to economic implosion.

A cyber attack on our major banks is again a possibility. Our money is largely digital and reflected on paper where nothing to back it up exists. I read recently that less than 30% of Americans have access to $3,000.00 in cash. That is a scary statistic, IMO. Let's remember too that anytime one tries to withdraw "large" sums of money from a savings/money market account (which really are not large at all) a flag and paperwork is sent to the government. What will happen if a month or several go by and people cannot buy things with their debit cards or get cash at an ATM?  IIRC, Ecuador became a "cash only" society overnight immediately following their major earthquake.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2011, 12:23:27 PM by Bonnieblue2A »

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I'm in the not very likely camp on this one, bordering on snowball's chance in hell of a true Book of Eli event.  That said, I see a lot of evidence that we're headed for a double dip recession which I think will be much deeper, longer, and more painful than the first (like anyone here actually believes there was actually a recovery ::) ).  I believe that the confluence of a number of factors will make this very painful for most of us, preppers or not, as we see a global debt deleveraging that will unfold for years in fits and starts.  Only after 10-15 years are we going to be truly emerging on the other side (there will be periods of recovery, followed by periods of declines inbetween).  Even then, we'll be emerging in a different world.  Without corporate investment into energy alternatives, with peak oil being pushed laterally for years because of a slow global economy, with China and India taking less of a direct shot as emerging economies, the US will have lost it's position on the top as the lone remaining superpower.

...at least that's what I'm thinking today...  Resiliency is the answer.  Create it psychologically, in your preps, and in your community.

Offline Pathfinder

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I think that at large Americans are too medicated and lazy to care about anything enough to riot on a national scale. Those who have lived exclusively off the taxpayer teat will likely riot in the streets of the large cities (think London riots) but I think that they too are lazy and will stick to the densely populated areas where the looting is easier.

We see in the news warnings of rolling blackouts as the EPA puts its new "environmental" standards into place that will devistate those living in areas largely powered by coal powered energy.

A total grid failure via cyber attack by the Chinese is very possible. They seem to be practicing and it is only a matter of time until they "get it right". I can also see our government shutting down the grid to control the ability of people to react to economic implosion.

A cyber attack on our major banks is again a possibility. Our money is largely digital and reflected on paper where nothing to back it up exists. I read recently that less than 30% of Americans have access to $3,000.00 in cash. That is a scary statistic, IMO. Let's remember too that anytime one tries to withdraw "large" sums of money from a savings/money market account (which really are not large at all) a flag and paperwork is sent to the government. What will happen if a month or several go by and people cannot buy things with their debit cards or get cash at an ATM?  IIRC, Ecuador became a "cash only" society overnight immediately following their major earthquake.

The London riots had something to do with underclass rioting - mostly from frustration with .gov handouts I would think. They also had a lot to do with entitlement mentality of people who are not on the socio-economic fringe - I want a BIG flat panel TV, do not want to pay for it, so I will "riot" to get me one! Like the interview with the couple enjoying their "liberated" bottle of wine.

The London riots were a very different thing from people rioting to find food because they or their family are starving. If it is a true food riot, there will be little standing.

IMHO, the collapse itself will be relatively clean but very quick. Jack has talked often of our house of cards - our systems of systems, each reliant on the other. If one breaks down - or is intentionally collapsed - the others will cascade as well very quickly.

I think we have much more to fear from our own .gov and NGOs like the Fed than we do from foreign powers or groups, although the foreigner-caused stuff can still happen. I think the evidence is clear that for the past 66 years our own .gov has been in an acquisitive mode, and our rights, freedoms, liberties, and in some cases health and life have been confiscated. I think this has especially been true in the last 25 years.

I still think we will be little more than a 3rd world country within a decade to 15 years max, and in that I think I am being generous. We have been bought and sold, we have given away our manufacturing capabilities, and we have little left to offer the rest of the world to exploit (except some oil reserves that cost more to extract than "normal" oil and huge agricultural potential (and reality) that is being dominated and controlled by .gov). With the collapse, the care and feeding of our citizens will become an all-encompassing drive for those same citizens, and .gov will will be more than happy to feed you and yours - for a price of course paid in liberties - from its Big Ag partners.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2011, 02:31:47 PM by Pathfinder »

Offline Husker7.62

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me and mine are personally prepping for this type of situation. Our way of thinking is that if you prepare for the absolute worst type of situation you can think of and you just have a two day riot you're gonna hopefully be on easy street throughout the hostilities. I think that we are almost as well as prepared as most people but we are certainly lacking in some areas(food being the main issue at the bol). What i would like to know is do any of us think that we would be prepared for this mentally? I think that i would be able to deal with everything that would arise from a teotwawki type of situation but i can't say that with a certainty because i haven't dealt with it before


on a side note has anyone else read any of the ashes series by William W. Johnstone? The first book is actually what turned me on to the idea of survival and finding my teammates.

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What i would like to know is do any of us think that we would be prepared for this mentally? I think that i would be able to deal with everything that would arise from a teotwawki type of situation but i can't say that with a certainty because i haven't dealt with it before
Pick up some of the survival psychology books out there and learn about how survivors (and the dead) think in real life events, be it mountaineering expeditions gone horribly wrong, sailors lost at sea, or folks in the twin towers on 9/11 that made the right or wrong choices.  Personal favorites on the subject are:
Deep Survival by Lawrence Gonzales
The Unthinkable by Amanda Ripley
The Survivors Club by Ben Sherwood
The Resiliency Advantage by Al Siebert (actually, he has a number of very useful books, papers and lectures)

Know thy enemy; he is often within.  That said, you have more of an opportunity to study the him, learn his tricks, and master his tactics than any other foe you will face.

Offline Docwatmo

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Very well said Endurance.   We are our worst enemy most of the time.  The more we think about and plan in our heads for scenarios, the better the chances we will not "Freeze up" or do stupid things when the time comes to use that mental prep.

I have yet to read these, but I am fixing my android tablet today and hopefully will be able to download all of those books in that list from Nook or B&N.

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Very well said Endurance.   We are our worst enemy most of the time.  The more we think about and plan in our heads for scenarios, the better the chances we will not "Freeze up" or do stupid things when the time comes to use that mental prep.

I have yet to read these, but I am fixing my android tablet today and hopefully will be able to download all of those books in that list from Nook or B&N.
Exactly.  Most folks respond in the same way as the grieving process:  Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression and ideally, Acceptance (although the non-survivors never make it that far).  Freezing and panic are two common initial modes, but all the others play a role at some stage of a protracted emergency.  I think most preppers have at least some immunity to denial and if anything, we're generally waiting for the other shoe to fall.  Anger has a lot of energy to it and can be put to good use initially, but can also get in the way of clear thinking.  Bargaining can be another form of denial, trying to make a deal with the devil to make things go back to the way things were, but the way back is rarely the solution.  One much keep moving forward.  Depression is the big ugly.  It's the sit in the snow and pout response that leads to hypothermia; it's the lay down and wait to be rescued attitude; and it's a huge killer in the outdoors. 

As for the books, Deep Survival is my favorite, but it's also the toughest to get through.  Gonzales has a lot of stories.  They're all good, but sometimes it's a distraction and he covers the same material over and over with different examples.  I recommend it on audiobook for most folks, but if you do get it on paper/tablet, if you get stuck, skip to Part II.  You aren't missing anything critical and you get the point just as well.  His recommendations in the last chapter and epilogue have truly served to inoculate me from some disasters.  It makes you recognize changing conditions early, take action and prevent the problems from every getting beyond your control.  That component of the book is worth it's weight in gold alone.

The easiest read is definitely The Survivor's Club, but to me it lacked the passion and was missing something to hook me.  Might just be me, but it read a bit too pulpy to me, but the material is all in there and as I said, it's an easy read.

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As for the books, Deep Survival is my favorite, but it's also the toughest to get through...........
The easiest read is definitely The Survivor's Club, but to me it lacked the passion and was missing something to hook me.  Might just be me, but it read a bit too pulpy to me, but the material is all in there and as I said, it's an easy read.

I agree with this entirely, the Ben Sherwood book is more on the level of entertainment. "Deep Survival" is deep reading, You have to go through it slow and again. I struggled with many of the concepts to my profit.

Offline spartan

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To the main topic:  I don't see a full out SHTF situation occurring.  I can, however, see a decline in Western Civilization to where our children, or grandchildren, hear stories about how good things were 30, 40, or 50 years ago when it comes to access to health care, personal freedom, food choices, etc. 

For the conversation about mental preparation:  I have experienced both sides of this, freezing up and taking action, and am thankful that my family was able to experience the worst in a non-critical situation.  We get to live our preps several times a year because of storms, power outages, and other minor disruptions, so usually have a set routine.  However, during one storm where there was a power outage and tree damage we were lulled into a false reassurance that power would be back on in just a few hours.  This came around 9pm at night.

Instead of putting the usual plan in place, we put some candles out, distributed flashlights, and went to bed.  Morning, no power.  Notices that power will be on in a few hours.  Relax, hang out, arrange for meals without power and have a relaxed day.  After 18 hours of notices that power would return soon we realized we were being stupid by listening to see when the status would change and returned to the prepper mentality. 

Finally, we were implementing our prearranged plans, but noticed how hard it was to shake the casual mindset of "this will be over soon" and get moving.  The 20 minute routine to prep the house took over an hour.

Don't let this happen to you.  You made a plan for a reason.  Implement it every time, even if the situation changes in the middle.  Never get caught unaware.

Offline bdhutier

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I voted, "Not likely."

In the absence of nuclear holocaust, or an equally destructive pandemic of some kind, I just don't see a full-out collapse into anarchy type situation.  I could see a shift to totalitarianism, or a crime-culture like Colombia, for instance.  But not really a full-tilt, every-man-for-himself deal.  Even if it did, at worst I see something like that lasting for a little while, a year perhaps, but sooner rather than later people will congeal into societal units.  They will do their best to slide themselves into a society and culture they are familiar with, and actively seek it out. 

If this full collapse were to occur, I also don't see the US sticking together in its current form.  I mean, as societies rebuild from the local, state, and regional levels, do many of us see WY, MT, ID, and UT (for example) really wanting southern California or Chicago back??  Seriously!!  I could personally do without MA, NJ, DC, and a few of the other Liberal collection centers.  If rebuilding a body back to life after dying of cancer, would anyone include the tumors which killed them??  ???

I wouldn't...

Offline cranston

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How likely is a total SHTF?  I don't know, enough I suppose to prompt me to redirect some of our cash savings into bullets beans and bandaids- just a different kind of rainy day savings. 

-Enough to make me learn about keeping the pump, freezer and furnace running when there's no power. 

-Enough to seek out potential bartering partners with like minded folks willing to trade skillls they have for skills I have.

-Enough to ask for a subscription to Backwoods Homestead magazine for Christmas and check out this webside fairly regularly.

 I guess what hooked me on Jacks podcasts was his tagline about living well when things go bad, and even if they don't.  That's what I want to do- and most of what we now call preps would be recognised by our farmer ancestors simply as every day living.  They made it through the great depression short on cash, but always with good food on the table and wood in the stove, and the kids often didn't know they were "poor".  I want to recreate that self reliance as much as I can and if the SHTF, we'll be able to keep chugging along, with good food on the table and wood in the stove- or at least fully charged solar batteries. :)

endurance

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To the main topic:  I don't see a full out SHTF situation occurring.  I can, however, see a decline in Western Civilization to where our children, or grandchildren, hear stories about how good things were 30, 40, or 50 years ago when it comes to access to health care, personal freedom, food choices, etc. 
Precisely.  However, you need to also look at the positives, too.  They will be in a society living within it's means, community will be forced to make a comeback, they'll have a relationship with the land they get their food from, they may know the man or woman that produced their tools and clothes... I'm not hoping for the worst, I'm just expecting a very long, slow decline and expect that in the turning we will discover that as a people, we can do better than what we've settled for.

hobbs67

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Perhaps I am too pessimistic, but working as I do in two cities that are overrun with crime and drugs where a goodly portion of the populations are unemployed and have experience with the criminal justice system it doesn't seem like it would take a heck of a lot to go directly to Book of Eli, do not pass go.

Driving through parts of the city now, the decay is just staggering and interacting as I do in my job with people of all classes, I see first hand the level of decay in the moral fabric and the social fabric that once held people together.  People really just don't give a hoot about other people or about right or wrong, its really sad and staggering at the same time and it seems to be getting a whole lot worse.  The veneer grows thinner everyday.

In this climate, I don't think it would take a large spark for control to be lost and things go very bad, very quickly. 

Perhaps the long slow decline is an option for some parts of the country and perhps I am being too pessimistic, but I don't expect the average east coast resident to go gently into that good night  -- I think they will go kicking and screaming.  With millions of people in a small area, kicking and screaming may not be pretty.