Author Topic: 2019 predictions ?  (Read 1324 times)

Offline surfivor

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2019 predictions ?
« on: December 26, 2018, 11:02:29 PM »
 Gerald Celente was recently saying we are headed for a huge orchestrated crash. I keep hearing how the stock market has been down since the worst in 100 years or something.

 Bill Holter was on kunstlercast recently saying a crash is coming and precious metal prices will skyrocket beyond belief. I have been through enough false predictions but then again the 2008 crash was well predicted. I don't know anything about that guy Holter however.




Offline Alan Georges

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Re: 2019 predictions ?
« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2018, 06:19:46 AM »
Just started the Kunstler-Holter podcast while fixing this morning's breakfast (probably a mistake right then...) and have Chris Martenson doing his annual podcast with David Collum (link) queued up next.

For a variety of reasons, inertia not the least of them, I am quietly hopeful for the next few years.  But I am sure that listening to Kunstler will fix that right up.  ::)

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: 2019 predictions ?
« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2018, 01:03:58 PM »
One of those articles...

David Goldman, CNN, 12/27/18: The longest-ever bull market is near its end. Or it might not be

:facepalm:  With a title like that, you know you're not going to get a straight answer.  Also, the article is very stock-market-centered, when what most of us care about is employment, paychecks, and inflation.  But it does provide some historical context.

Quote
...The stock market has not fallen by 20% [the common definition of a bear market] for 3,580 days (and counting). That is the longest period of uninterrupted stock market gains in history. ...

If the market does enter a bear market soon, the record books will be revised to show that the bull market actually ended on September 20, when the S&P 500 closed at a record high of 2,930. The bear market would have started the next day.

The bull and bear designations are only labels. Nothing magical happens when the stock market is up or down 20%. But they help mark broad cycles in markets and the economy. Historical evidence suggests recessions often follow the end of bull markets. ...

The Federal Reserve, Congress and the Obama administration goosed the economy a decade ago with stimulus, bailouts and interest rates near zero to pull the country out of a deep recession. That made borrowing cheap for years, setting off a string of record corporate profits that sent the stock market soaring.

Yet economic growth had been tepid over the past decade following the initial stimulus rush. Inflation remained stubbornly low and paychecks hardly grew at all during the bulk of the recovery. ...

"Inflation remained stubbornly low" :facepalm:  I'm developing a handprint on my face.  There was a time when inflation was a Bad Thing, because it erodes the purchasing power of savings.

Now, it's a Good Thing, because it erodes the purchasing power of savings.  Inflation artificially induces people to purchase things sooner rather than later, thereby propping up businesses and making economic data look good.  And it artificially drives people away from cash savings, and into riskier investments (e.g. stocks), thereby propping up the stockmarket and executive bonuses.

:facepalm:

Yeah, I know it's more complicated than that.  It just frustrates me that nobody seems to remember even the concept of a "free market" anymore.

...huge orchestrated crash...

I don't think the crash (or recession) will be orchestrated.  I think it will be inevitable given what's been propping it up.

What will be orchestrated is the response to the crash.  There will be zillions in bailouts for banks and businesses, just like in 2007-2009, which will result (again) in a net transfer of wealth from the general population to the favored few.

Offline surfivor

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Re: 2019 predictions ?
« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2018, 01:22:36 PM »

This is what Gerald Celente has been saying

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fxstreet.com/amp/analysis/gerald-celente-fed-may-bring-down-the-economy-crash-markets-201809211955

Gerald Celente: Fed May Bring Down the Economy, Crash Markets

..

So what we're saying is that, when the Fed raises interest rates too much, when emerging markets currencies slump too low, that's the implication, the symptom of the cause. And that's going to bring down, that's going to be the contagion

Offline surfivor

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Re: 2019 predictions ?
« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2018, 01:59:16 PM »

Peter Schiff has said the same thing about the federal reserve

https://www.newsmax.com/t/finance/article/888858/8

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff warns that further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will spark the next stock market crash.

“[The Federal Reserve] should raise rates, but the market is going to collapse as a result,” he recently told the Fox Business Network.

Schiff said investors should expect a long drawn-out bear market with the cost of living rising to dramatic levels, Fox Business

Offline surfivor

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Re: 2019 predictions ?
« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2018, 02:00:54 PM »

Peter Schiff this past November:

https://www.newsmax.com/t/finance/article/890985/2

“The Fed is likely to keep nudging rates higher. They're oblivious to what's going on. They have no idea that we're facing an economic crisis worse than 2008. We are looking at a stock market decline and a housing decline. In fact, this housing bubble is bigger than the one that burst in 2007-2008,”

Read Newsmax: Peter Schiff: Fed to Hike Rates Until 'Gigantic Bubble' Pops

Offline surfivor

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Re: 2019 predictions ?
« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2018, 02:06:35 PM »
Ron Paul from October 29th. He says federal reserve will cause the next recession.

Basically Celente, Ron Paul, and Schiff are all blaming the federal reserve saying the coming recession will be caused by the federal reserve bank

http://www.campaignforliberty.org/ron-paul-trump-right-fed-crazy

President Trump recently called the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes crazy. Leaving aside President Trump’s specific complaint, which is likely motivated by the belief that low rates will help him win reelection, he is right that “crazy” is a good way to describe the Federal Reserve.

..

It is likely that the next Fed-created recession will come sooner rather than later. This could be the major catastrophe that leads to the end of fiat currency. The only way to avoid crisis is to force Congress to end our monetary madness. The first steps are passing the Audit the Fed bill, allowing people to use alternative currencies, and exempting all transactions in precious metals and cryptocurrencies from capital gains taxes and other taxes.


Offline David in MN

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Re: 2019 predictions ?
« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2018, 03:10:27 PM »
I don't find macro predictions useful. It's easy for me to see that GE and Bitcoin were on the verge of crumbling but the broader market is very hard to handicap. Are there problems? Of course. But it's much easier to read the tea leaves on a single company's financial report than figure out when Social Security will crater.

Offline surfivor

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Re: 2019 predictions ?
« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2018, 06:58:47 PM »
Silver prices seem low and given the news we may see it’s going to go up. Prices are about as low as anything since 2008 or so and I don’t know that pre 2008 prices will ever be seen again.  It may be a good idea to buy some junk silver soon. I guess prices are going to go up and have already started to

If you buy junk silver, the chances of that being declared illegal contraband is low but silver rounds might be declared illegal in the worst case. That was discussed on the Kunstler show mentioned

Silver was $14/oz in September. It looks like it is now $15/oz. during obama it had reached $35/oz or $40/oz or more
« Last Edit: December 27, 2018, 07:09:09 PM by surfivor »

Offline Carver

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Re: 2019 predictions ?
« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2018, 08:36:02 PM »
It’s almost 2019, I am a year older and I still have so many unanswered questions!!!! I haven’t found out who let the dogs out…where’s the beef…how to get to Sesame Street… why Dora doesn’t just use Google Maps…Why do all flavors of fruit loops taste exactly the same, or how many licks does it take to get to the center of a tootsie pop……why eggs are packaged in a flimsy carton, but batteries are secured in plastic that’s tough as nails…what does the fox say… why “abbreviated” is such a long word; or why is there a D in ‘fridge’ but not in refrigerator… why lemon juice is made with artificial flavor yet dish-washing liquid is made with real lemons… why they sterilize the needle for lethal injections… and, why do you have to “put your two cents in” but it’s only a “penny for your thoughts” where’s that extra penny going, why does The Alphabet Song and Twinkle Twinkle Little Star have the same tune… why did you just try to sing those two previous songs… and just what exactly is Victoria’s secret? and where is Waldo?

Offline CarbideAndIron

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Re: 2019 predictions ?
« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2018, 06:55:15 AM »
John Pugliano remains much more optimistic of the current situation, plus he breaks down some numbers for why we should keep investing through 2019. His Dec 23rd podcast is worth a listen.

Alan, thanks for reminding me of Chris Martenson. I like his work. Just forgot about his site.

Offline Louisiana Suvivor

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Re: 2019 predictions ?
« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2018, 03:09:35 PM »
I just bought 6 silver coins for $99. Its slowly going up but still good time to buy imo.


Silver prices seem low and given the news we may see it’s going to go up. Prices are about as low as anything since 2008 or so and I don’t know that pre 2008 prices will ever be seen again.  It may be a good idea to buy some junk silver soon. I guess prices are going to go up and have already started to

If you buy junk silver, the chances of that being declared illegal contraband is low but silver rounds might be declared illegal in the worst case. That was discussed on the Kunstler show mentioned

Silver was $14/oz in September. It looks like it is now $15/oz. during obama it had reached $35/oz or $40/oz or more