Author Topic: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm  (Read 451 times)

Offline Greekman

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World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« on: July 25, 2019, 11:30:45 PM »
-for what is worth-
things have gotten me worried.
Over here some of the serious talking heads (from both the left and the right) are cautioning against a possible world economic crash 2 years from now.
they say things will be worse cos it will not be the subprimes that will crash, but real productive economy has gone south and there is fall back point.

Any chance you are hearing the same in the US?

Offline CharlesH

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2019, 06:40:17 AM »
Stories like this are common in the US.  Predicting the next downturn is always complicated, though.  If we knew when the next crash was going to occur, and what was going to cause it, then we could probably avoid the crash.  Easier said than done... Will there be a crash? Sure. Will someone who predicated it be right?  Sure again. Most people in The predication game will be wrong on the timing, the cause, or both, however, and we’ll never hear from them again.
 
It will happen. The people in charge when it happens will be blamed and pay the price. I just stay diversified in my financial and personal life and try to weather each storm as it comes.

Offline Greekman

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2019, 09:00:22 AM »
yes i know...if you shoot "fire" for long enough, eventually you will be right. Life and economy run in circles after all...
but this time i wonder if there real signs enough to warrant an expectation.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2019, 11:53:00 AM »
I've been hearing this continuously for 40 years.  I just saw someone's description of a particular alternative economics news site as having "accurately predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions."  The more mainstream news isn't immune to this either.

Sometimes it turns out to be true.  Or, sometimes we have an invisible crash -- more like an ooze, as wealth flows from some areas of the economy to other areas -- and then afterwards, everyone says "See? No crash!" but can't really explain why 90% of the population is in worse economic shape.

I feel like the economy has been unstable for my entire life, and I keep seeing governments and megacorporations doing things that cannot possibly be sustainable -- yet somehow we never quite collapse back to the Dark Ages.  I do think there are people with lots of wealth and/or political power who are trying to steer economic disruptions so as to benefit themselves and their allies -- but I don't believe it's a unified Deep State or International Bankers' Conspiracy or whatever that's doing this.  More like battling Mafia families, or Game of Thrones -- and in the wealthier parts of the world, they don't have complete control, and can't prevent upstarts like today's tech industry billionaires from coming into existence and messing up their plans.

So I don't know if we're on the verge of a crash, or just another ooze.  But however it happens, I expect the result will (again) be a net transfer of wealth from the general population to a small fraction of the population.

...The people in charge when it happens will be blamed and pay the price. ...

Yup, every time.  Regardless of whether they inherited an impossible situation from the previous people in charge.

Offline Greekman

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2019, 04:53:58 PM »
yet crashes do happen and have ripple effects....the 2007 bust may be a notch in the US economic history but created an upturn in the Greek economy (since, you cannot expect much of a row boat facing Hawaiian waves).
This is my concern, we here are so exhausted that a big "stock market correction" may sink us for good.

Sometimes it turns out to be true.  Or, sometimes we have an invisible crash -- more like an ooze, as wealth flows from some areas of the economy to other areas -- and then afterwards, everyone says "See? No crash!" but can't really explain why 90% of the population is in worse economic shape.

I have never heard of this... One more thing to consider then. thanks MrBill

Offline NWPilgrim

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2019, 09:14:54 PM »
snip...
I feel like the economy has been unstable for my entire life, and I keep seeing governments and megacorporations doing things that cannot possibly be sustainable -- yet somehow we never quite collapse back to the Dark Ages.  I do think there are people with lots of wealth and/or political power who are trying to steer economic disruptions so as to benefit themselves and their allies -- but I don't believe it's a unified Deep State or International Bankers' Conspiracy or whatever that's doing this.  More like battling Mafia families, or Game of Thrones -- and in the wealthier parts of the world, they don't have complete control, and can't prevent upstarts like today's tech industry billionaires from coming into existence and messing up their plans.

So I don't know if we're on the verge of a crash, or just another ooze.  But however it happens, I expect the result will (again) be a net transfer of wealth from the general population to a small fraction of the population.
snip...

Really excellent post!  Crash or ooze the game is the same with the same corrupt winners and same average-Joe losers.  Over the long haul there are a thousand ways for them to extract wealth from the middle class. Binge and crash the mortgage market, ooze more inflation, binge and crash derivatives, ooze more inflation and increase taxes, etc.  Even inescapable (as you get older) health care is a rigged racket.  The last time I heard ANY substantial political discussion about the national debt and deficit was the 1998 budget clash between Clinton and the Republican Congress, in which they caved after a couple of months and never squeaked about the budget again for the last 21 years.  You cannot run massive deficits every year for 10-20 years without paying the piper eventually.  The result will be "The Mother of All Crashes" or "The Mother of All Economic Ooze."  But it could take 1 year, five years or 50 years to unfold.  The longer it takes the worse the final result.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2019, 06:05:13 PM »
AP, 8/14/19: Dow slumps 800 points after bonds flash recession warning

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...The yield on the closely watched 10-year Treasury fell so low Wednesday that, for the first time since 2007, it briefly crossed a threshold that has correctly predicted many past recessions. Weak economic data from Germany and China added to recent signals of a global slowdown.

That spooked investors, who responded by dumping stocks, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average into an 800-point skid, its biggest drop of the year. The S&P 500 index dropped nearly 3% as the market erased all of its gains from a rally the day before. ...

The yield on the 10-year Treasury has dropped from 2.02% on July 31 to below 1.60% and on Wednesday, it briefly fell below the two-year Treasury's yield for the first time since 2007. Each of the last five times the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields have inverted, a recession has followed. The average amount of time is around 22 months, according to Raymond James' Giddis. The indicator isn't perfect, though, and has given false signals in the past. ...

Gold gained $13.70 to $1,515.90 per ounce, close to a six-year high. ...

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: World Wide crash pending? hmmmm
« Reply #7 on: Today at 07:16:30 PM »
WaPo:  The month a shadow fell on Trump’s economy

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Top White House advisers notified President Trump earlier this month that some internal forecasts showed that the economy could slow markedly over the next year, stopping short of a recession but complicating his path to reelection in 2020.

The private forecast, one of several delivered to Trump and described by three people familiar with the briefing, contrasts sharply with the triumphant rhetoric the president and his surrogates have repeatedly used to describe the economy.

Quote
Ideas that have been discussed include imposing a currency transaction tax that could weaken the dollar and make U.S. exports more competitive; creating a rotation among the Federal Reserve governors that would make it easier to check the power of Chair Jerome H. Powell, whom Trump has blamed for not doing all he can to increase growth; and pushing to lower the corporate tax rate to 15 percent in an effort to spur more investment. Some, if not all, of these steps would require congressional approval.

“Everyone is nervous — everyone,” said a Republican with close ties to the White House and congressional GOP leaders. “It’s not a panic, but they are nervous.”

This article is based on interviews with more than 25 current and former administration officials, lawmakers, and external advisers who have been in contact with Trump and his team throughout August. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity because the White House has been requesting that allies and aides keep its economic message intact.