Author Topic: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?  (Read 2051 times)

Offline Prepper Rob

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 16
  • Karma: 3
  • New TSP Forum member
    • Rob's Prepper Presentations
How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« on: October 14, 2019, 12:27:05 PM »
Greetings ACA Members

My wife and I are in our 50's and have a 18 year old nonverbal low functioning autistic son.

We live in one of the last few houses before the suburbs turn into farm land.

I hear new and old preppers on podcasts speak of there fear of what the unprepared are going to do.

I belive with out gasoline, there will not be a lot of people travailing around.

I belive the people asking for help or drug / alcohol seeker will come from a walking one mile radius of my house.

How do you all feel about this ?

Prepper Rob


Offline fritz_monroe

  • The Defenestrator
  • Administrator
  • Survival Veteran
  • *******
  • Posts: 8374
  • Karma: 151
    • The Homestead Fritz
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2019, 04:52:55 PM »
Personally, I think that it will have to get pretty bad for the unprepared to head out into the country to loot.

As you mentioned, lack of gasoline will help with this.  Not to be callous, but many unprepared are in fairly bad physical shape.  Many will die just days or weeks after SHTF hits.  This will "free up" more of the resources in the cities.  I also feel that it's much easier to loot close to home.

That doesn't mean that nobody will come calling during a SHTF situation, but I feel that there won't be all that many willing to come out to the country until things get pretty bad.

Offline IKN

  • Senior Survivalist
  • ****
  • Posts: 209
  • Karma: 14
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2019, 06:11:53 PM »
IMHO, there are too many factors that could affect any true answer to your question. Factors like terrain, climate, how bad off people are, and how widespread the problem is.
I personally think that during the initial SHTF situation, the ill prepared will tend to migrate towards larger towns and cities since the general sentiment would be that's where help and resources are going to be and for a local area SHTF, they're probably right.
If/when things get bad in the cities, I believe people will tend to try and travel major highways and, probably, heading south (depending on time of year) with considerations towards safety, water, and food.
Some will take the roads less traveled probably thinking there will be more resources due to fewer people. Either way, I think most will travel in groups for safety in numbers, if for nothing else.

For me, living in a northern climate, the test will be surviving until the late fall. By that time, food resources are getting scarce and dropping temperatures will make it harder for people to stay warm and sheltered. By then, most unprepared people will be well on their way south to a warmer climate.

Offline CarbideAndIron

  • Survivalist Mentor
  • *****
  • Posts: 437
  • Karma: 6
  • Steve
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2019, 07:45:18 AM »
I live outside the city, but not quite rural. Couple acres, neighbors all got 2-20 acres of land. Probably the urban rural fringe that Jack talks about.
I was pretty shocked to see homeless show up in the small towns around me, like my old town of 4500. But they don't seem to leave town and head away from the resources. I'd imagine this could show a trend of what the unprepared might do.
All about networking with your neighbors. Communicate with each other to improve the security of your area. We keep a close eye on the back of our property, because I did wander across a couple homeless camps outside town where we would walk the dog with my kids. So places that used to be safe, aren't what they used to be.

Offline iam4liberty

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 3827
  • Karma: 308
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2019, 08:30:02 AM »
I was pretty shocked to see homeless show up in the small towns around me, like my old town of 4500. But they don't seem to leave town and head away from the resources. I'd imagine this could show a trend of what the unprepared might do.

Many small towns have food banks/soup kitchens sponsored by church groups.  They are a blessing but can incentivise some to relocate.  You might want to check if that is the case.

Which brings up a pertinent point.  The unprepared will eventually travel to wherever there is food and where they will feel safe.  Look at relocations during dust bowl/depression.  Towns will try to set up camps on outside parameter so as to not be overwhelmed.  We have seen this pattern play out for centuries. 

Grapes of Wrath used to be discussed in schools as a practical not political piece.  It is still a relevant book of fiction to give some perspective on motivation during times of crisis.

Offline rustyknife

  • Dedicated Contributor
  • ******
  • Posts: 1071
  • Karma: 30
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2019, 05:13:11 PM »
Is this where the FEMA camps kick-in? Still trying to figure out why they are being activated. ???

Offline DDJ

  • Senior Survivalist
  • ****
  • Posts: 284
  • Karma: 16
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2019, 10:33:17 AM »
If a scenario goes full evacuation and or refugee I would say that the only place that is safe is the only place that is not between 2 points or close to between 2 points.  Look at the Syrian refugees a few years back "walking" to Germany.  Distance is your friend but obscurity is a better ally. (that might be a tee shirt) Availability of transportation will be a key factor in smaller events.  If there is gas the "raiding" range is bigger.  If they have to walk the "raiding range" gets smaller.  Weather will also play a role in this distance. If they move from raids to migration all bets are off.

I am using the word raid to mean that they return to where they came from.  A home base mentality.

Migration would be like a swarm of locusts moving across the landscape from point A to point B. I would expect most large scale migration to be North to South over along term but a collapsing circle of people moving in to the city because that is where government will set up shelters and giveaway life will happen first.  When the winter winds blow it will be a North to South Migration.  North to south will also likely happen when the white blanket of winter lifts as people wan to get out of barley surviving the winter.  There will also likely be an extreme south move to the North to beat the heat.  I would guess that it will be city to city but they will move in a V as they look for food and shelter the ones in front will go the straightest and those that follow will fan out to find what they missed to the sides. 

If it goes that far I hope I don't see it.

Offline Stwood

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 4251
  • Karma: 66
  • Wut wuz dat Olie?
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2019, 03:02:09 PM »
Is this where the FEMA camps kick-in? Still trying to figure out why they are being activated. ???

Any more info on the camps??

Offline fritz_monroe

  • The Defenestrator
  • Administrator
  • Survival Veteran
  • *******
  • Posts: 8374
  • Karma: 151
    • The Homestead Fritz
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2019, 04:43:41 PM »
Any more info on the camps??
Agree, haven't heard anything about "activating" FEMA camps.

Distance is your friend but obscurity is a better ally.
Very profound words.

I'm on a Snow Emergency Route, but in all honesty, it goes nowhere that any mobs would be headed.  It's North of any big cities and is not on the way to anything.

Offline Stwood

  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 4251
  • Karma: 66
  • Wut wuz dat Olie?
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2019, 05:35:10 PM »
I'm in good with an older former FEMA employee. I'll be seeing him tomorrow.
I'll see if he's still in the know.

Offline leadeye

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 27
  • Karma: 1
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2019, 09:41:29 PM »
Local folks that do not have resources could steal your food, resources, chickens or whatever. Things like bicycles, ATV's, motorcycles would be used to extend range. This type of concern would be from a large scale event. Your best protection would be local neighbors in cooperation. Just my thoughts.

Offline Gamer

  • Senior Survivalist
  • ****
  • Posts: 247
  • Karma: 6
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2019, 02:40:51 AM »
RULE No.1- Don't broadcast it around that you're a prepper, because if word gets around you can expect people to come hammering on your door when it hits the fan hoping you'll take them in, especially if you've turned your cellar into a shelter..;)

TWILIGHT ZONE "The Shelter"-
1- A happy neighbourhood birthday party, what could possibly go wrong?
2- Radio announcer- "Incoming enemy missiles. get in your shelters!"
3- "Lemme in, I'm your mate"........"Clear off!"
4- "None of us have got a shelter, let's bust into his!"
5- Radio announcer-"False alarm"
6- "Get out of my house you lot!"




PS- I learnt the folly of broadcasting some years ago when our cycling club went on a 100-mile ride in midwinter; I was showing off my small rucksack full of food and drink before the start, and as a result riders who'd got no food kept pedalling up to me en route trying to beg stuff off me and I said "Sorry, I've only got enough for myself" which didn't go down to well, and they were dropping out like flies all round the course and only me and a couple of other "preppers" finished the course, but I wouldn't have done if I'd handed out my stuff..:)
« Last Edit: November 22, 2019, 02:48:03 AM by Gamer »

Offline fritz_monroe

  • The Defenestrator
  • Administrator
  • Survival Veteran
  • *******
  • Posts: 8374
  • Karma: 151
    • The Homestead Fritz
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2019, 06:27:13 PM »
"Sorry, I've only got enough for myself"
And it sucks that you're the dick for not sharing your stuff with the idiots that didn't think they needed any supplies to make a mid-winter centennial ride.

Offline LvsChant

  • Resident Master Mudder
  • Global Moderator
  • Survival Veteran
  • ******
  • Posts: 7304
  • Karma: 603
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #13 on: November 23, 2019, 09:09:53 AM »
Your very polite reply of "Sorry, I've only enough for myself" could easily have been a bit more direct. I'd have probably laughed and them and had a more rude remark...

Offline Gamer

  • Senior Survivalist
  • ****
  • Posts: 247
  • Karma: 6
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #14 on: November 23, 2019, 09:13:56 PM »
I belive the people asking for help or drug / alcohol seeker will come from a walking one mile radius of my house.
How do you all feel about this ?

Just don't answer the door..:)
But I suppose it depends what your home is like, I live on the 3rd floor of a small apartment block, and to get in they'd have to smash down the street door and come up the stairs and kick my flat door down.
But hopefully they'd be tackled by the tenants in the flats below mine first..:)

Offline The Professor

  • Tactical Skittle Assassin
  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 2733
  • Karma: 381
  • All we have to do is create another universe
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #15 on: November 26, 2019, 06:21:07 PM »
Just don't answer the door..:)
But I suppose it depends what your home is like, I live on the 3rd floor of a small apartment block, and to get in they'd have to smash down the street door and come up the stairs and kick my flat door down.
But hopefully they'd be tackled by the tenants in the flats below mine first..:)

Yeah, that's if the tenants in the flats below don't break YOUR door down before the outsiders do.

The Professor

Offline The Professor

  • Tactical Skittle Assassin
  • Survival Demonstrator
  • *******
  • Posts: 2733
  • Karma: 381
  • All we have to do is create another universe
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #16 on: November 26, 2019, 07:24:51 PM »
Greetings ACA Members

My wife and I are in our 50's and have a 18 year old nonverbal low functioning autistic son.

We live in one of the last few houses before the suburbs turn into farm land.

I hear new and old preppers on podcasts speak of there fear of what the unprepared are going to do.

I belive with out gasoline, there will not be a lot of people travailing around.

I belive the people asking for help or drug / alcohol seeker will come from a walking one mile radius of my house.

How do you all feel about this ?

Prepper Rob


Let me make a few comments, here:

First, you're looking for an answer that no one can give without any parameters to set any form of limit.

So, my answer is : Others will go as far as they feel necessary to continue living.  Will they raid your house?  My answer is: Wouldn't you be better off prepping for that possibility than hoping for an answer to the contrary?

Since we don't know the type of situation for which you are preparing, I'll assume a worst-case, total-collapse scenario without any immediate chance for recovery.

What I see is similar to what others call a "swarm of Locusts."  First, people will exhaust the supplies they have and can steal/loot easily.  THen, they'll start reaching outwards, farther and farther.  Conflict will occur between individuals and groups over waning resources.  Groups will grow, fight, shatter, and reform over and over through attrition and resource exhaustion.

They will move from one area to another as they use up resources in each area.  Some will try to recover by securing an area and enable resource growth and regrowth.  In other words, tribes will grow, fight, die and survivors will make new tribes. Some will become bedouin-style wanderers, some will be Mad Max-esque Raiders and yet others will be like the smaller villages of The Postman movie.

Will they find you?  Possibly.  I would suggest having responses in place if/when they do.

The Professor

Offline Fixit

  • Survivalist Mentor
  • *****
  • Posts: 386
  • Karma: 21
  • New TSP Forum member
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #17 on: November 27, 2019, 07:45:05 PM »
I worry less than some on this. First I'm 5 miles off the county road up a logging road with a locked gate 2 miles in. Second i am a primary bugout location for a group of prepper s and a backup bugout location for a second group of people .
 Ex military and  current law enforcement in both groups .3 with sniper training . Not a place you want to force your way into.

Offline LvsChant

  • Resident Master Mudder
  • Global Moderator
  • Survival Veteran
  • ******
  • Posts: 7304
  • Karma: 603
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #18 on: November 28, 2019, 11:22:05 AM »
Sounds like a good situation, fixit.

We are not as remote as your location and don't really have a group of preppers we've made plans with, but we are outside of any population centers and surrounded by good old-fashioned folks who take care of themselves (gardening, livestock, etc) and who look out for each other pretty well, with the exception of a very few. We'll probably be among the most prepared in the nearby area, but aren't really advertising that fact. We'll do what we can to develop networks and encourage others to be ready to take care of themselves. We'll continue to prepare ourselves as much as we can.

Offline Prepper Rob

  • Prepper
  • **
  • Posts: 16
  • Karma: 3
  • New TSP Forum member
    • Rob's Prepper Presentations
Re: How Far will the Unprepared Travel ?
« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2019, 04:59:01 PM »
Greetings Professor

I believe there are two types of preppers who been prepping for several years that is the glass half full and the glass half empty. 

I am asking you to join me in the glass half full crowd and to teach and encourage people to prepare for the worst and hope for the best and help them realize that only Russia and China can send enough EMP missiles to knock out the power to the entire country and they are not going to do that because it would hurt there economy. 

The best that North Korea / Iran can do is to shoot a few that will knock out the East Coast power grid.  The east coats grid can also be knocked out by two team of 6 terrorist from the ground in which Texas and the West Coast will have power and will be sending their national guard to help and relief agencies from all around the world we will be coming in to help.

As an open Prepper, who is trying to do operational security by not inviting people to my house now to see my preps, I want to be invited to their house to haul off all their junk, put up a piece of plywood in the garage for them to mount their battery rack for their 12 Volt power system, put up shelves and talk to them about their fears of what other people are going to do when the event happens.

I want to spread and project my opinion that will be living in a ghost town full of dead bodies of the unhealthy in the suburbs and we need to be ready to shoot the bad guys and that every house in the suburbs will not have three groups of people every day asking for help or worse.  That only happens in the movies / Prepper Fiction

I am also asking every county school corporation, church, mosque and synagogue across the USA to gather up supplies to establish mini FEMA camps after the event happens.

Prepper Rob, Louisville, Ky.