Author Topic: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China  (Read 27727 times)

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #690 on: March 26, 2020, 05:26:49 PM »
MODERATOR NOTE: To keep the focus of this thread on current news, let's put discussions of the virus origin in the existing topic:
Virus accidentally released from lab ?

sorry  :-[

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #691 on: March 26, 2020, 05:40:22 PM »
sorry  :-[

No problem.  All of these sub-topics are connected.  We're just trying to keep it easy for people to find what they're looking for.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #692 on: March 26, 2020, 06:42:07 PM »
And of tomorrow, chloroquine will be available in mass quantities to the health system. About 2.5 pills per each person.

Any idea how they plan to use?

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #693 on: March 26, 2020, 07:47:58 PM »


Big leap in cases for the US, with 20% of our total cases coming just from today alone.




Not sure what's going on with WA, their new cases today are 5x what they were yesterday, definitely not a plateau.


It's interesting to look at the per capita COVID-19 burden for each state, not sure why Worldometer doesn't do it:

In aggregate, the total US disease burden in cases per million population = 85,280 / 330 (million) = 258 cases per million population

New York's cases per million population = 38,977 / 19.4 = 2,009 !!!

New Jersey = 6,876 / 8.9 = 773

California = 3,922 / 39.9 = 100

Washington = 3,207 / 7.8 = 411

Michigan = 2,856 / 10 = 286


Even the least populated state, Wyoming = 56 / 0.57 = 98 cases per million.  About the same as California and almost twice what China is reporting.


And don't forget Louisiana = 2,305 / 4.6 = 501 per million.  That's 5X California!!!
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 08:09:23 PM by FreeLancer »

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #694 on: March 26, 2020, 08:49:08 PM »
The Wahington trend has definitely bee flatening.  The governor even commented on the positive trend today.  But the timing of reports is adding noise to the data.  This is the problem with time zones and difficulty of West Coast states to process complete data in time. WA added a note on their report yesterday.:

Due to a nearly ten-fold increase in the number of lab reports received electronically, our database is experiencing a substantial slowdown in processing lab data. Our IT team is working to correct the issue. In the meantime, daily updates may be published late and there may be a delay in including some test results in our totals.

The official 4 ET report is showing 2469 to 2580 for a change of 111.  This was probably too low meaning data wasnt fully populated.  The pending data is then getting added in the next day.  Some days are shorted and others are extended.  So it is probably best to start doing a running average over days.

Offline Prepper456

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #695 on: March 26, 2020, 10:30:48 PM »
the state of washington

3/22/20
1,996 cases
203 new cases that day
95 total deaths


3/26/20
3,207 cases
619 new cases that day
147 total deaths

i dont see any decrease

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #696 on: March 26, 2020, 11:27:31 PM »
the state of washington

3/22/20
1,996 cases
203 new cases that day
95 total deaths


3/26/20
3,207 cases
619 new cases that day
147 total deaths

i dont see any decrease

Really?  You seriously dont see this flatening trend? 

20200326   WA   2,580   +4.5% (Note potential delayed data issue with cases moved into next day)
20200325   WA   2,469.  +11.2%
20200324   WA   2,221.  +11.3%
20200323   WA   1,996.  +11.3%
20200322   WA   1,793.  +17.7%
20200321   WA   1,524.  +10.8%
20200320   WA   1,376.  +15.9%
20200319   WA   1,187.  +17.3%
20200318   WA   1,012.  +11.9%
20200317   WA   904.     +17.6%
20200316   WA   769.     +19.8%
20200315   WA   642.     +13.0%
20200314   WA   568.     +24.3%
20200313   WA   457.     +35.6%
20200312   WA   337.     +26.2%
20200311   WA   267.     +64.8%
20200310   WA   162.     +19.1%
20200309   WA   136.     +33.3%
20200308   WA   102

From news:

Gov. Jay Inslee said Thursday morning that the infection rate from the coronavirus in Washington state is slowing compared to other states.
...
The governor presented a graph that shows that in Washington, based on numbers as of this morning, that social distancing could be starting to flatten the curve.

Inslee said the numbers are being helped by the slowing down of new cases primarily in Puget Sound, where the virus first hit in Snohomish County. Within weeks, the number of confirmed cases took off, with a cluster of infections at a Kirkland nursing home.

He said that is a sign the restrictions put in place over the past few weeks may be working.





The scale on that chart is logrithmic.  So an exponential growth would be shown as a straight line.  The Washington trend is definitely no longer exponential in terms of days.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 11:41:22 PM by iam4liberty »

Offline Greekman

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #697 on: March 27, 2020, 12:36:55 AM »
Any idea how they plan to use?

not exactly....the official (local FDA head) was very reserved on this because we had a drugstore run on this drug that created a temporary shortage (Chloroquine is used for other diseases too).
He did talk about distributing to hospitals and the ones getting would be those deemed in need of by the doctors there, but he did not say
1. at what illness stage would be administered.
2. if the private doctors can prescribe it at stay home patients. (judging by the availability *I* presume it will be administered in hospitals conjunction with a quick test diagnosis eventually)

BTW he was adamant that Chloroquine has bad side-effects, among them heart muscle degeneration, something that virus already does. So it requires administration under observation.

BTW 2....I would not assume that because Greece is getting in the Chlorquine bandwagon this is a confirmation of the drug being the Holy Grail. It might as well be a poor country's risk taken, in regards to therapy cost and ease of availability.

(the story behinds that is that a local generics producer secured 5 tons of, and an airlifting operation was staged with cooperation of the government and what used to be Olympic Airways)

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #698 on: March 27, 2020, 01:22:20 AM »
Really?  You seriously dont see this flatening trend? 

20200327 WA    3,207   +30%
20200326   WA   2,580   +4.5% (Note potential delayed data issue with cases moved into next day)
20200325   WA   2,469.  +11.2%
20200324   WA   2,221.  +11.3%
20200323   WA   1,996.  +11.3%
20200322   WA   1,793.  +17.7%
20200321   WA   1,524.  +10.8%
20200320   WA   1,376.  +15.9%
20200319   WA   1,187.  +17.3%
20200318   WA   1,012.  +11.9%
20200317   WA   904.     +17.6%
20200316   WA   769.     +19.8%
20200315   WA   642.     +13.0%
20200314   WA   568.     +24.3%
20200313   WA   457.     +35.6%
20200312   WA   337.     +26.2%
20200311   WA   267.     +64.8%
20200310   WA   162.     +19.1%
20200309   WA   136.     +33.3%
20200308   WA   102


Not sure what the trend is now.  Guess we'll see where tomorrow takes us.

I would expect major outbreaks are still to come outside of Puget Sound, where most of the WA's current cases are, such as Spokane, Yakima, Tri-Cities, and Vancouver (which is bascially a suburb of Portland, OR).  States with widely dispersed population centers will likely see their daily numbers wax and wane a bit as the infection moves.

Offline Prepper456

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #699 on: March 27, 2020, 01:29:30 AM »
Really?  You seriously dont see this flatening trend? 

not really. no.

"washington state appears to be achieving some “very modest improvement” in its battle against the coronavirus pandemic..."

this is an "appears to be"... this wording is not a definate yes it is for sure flattening the curve. that's just a maybe and inslee is hoping.

“The good news is our system is not overwhelmed today,” he said. Yet the overall caseload is still rising..."

still rising...

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/gov-inslee-stay-at-home-order-may-need-to-be-extended-to-fight-spread-of-coronavirus-in-washington/%3famp=1

Offline suzysurvivor

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #700 on: March 27, 2020, 06:06:13 AM »
New Orleans went from 1800 cases Wednesday to 2300 Thursday.

Offline Prepper456

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #701 on: March 27, 2020, 08:39:59 AM »
USA coronavirus deaths each day:
3/18: 38
3/19: 43
3/20: 54
3/21: 79
3/22: 105
3/23: 124
3/24: 157
3/25: 220
3/26: 280

we might hit 300 deaths per day today. this is exponential growth.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #702 on: March 27, 2020, 11:29:26 AM »
More masks going into the pipeline

Quote
A union representing healthcare works said Thursday that it had located 39 million N95 masks and was connecting their supplier to hospitals and state and local governments.
That's more than the number of masks in the US national stockpile, which has about 12 million N95 masks and 30 million surgical masks.
The masks are set to be distributed in California and New York at a cost of $5 each.

so, there are some hospitals can buy while we are ramping up production. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-39-million-n95-medical-masks-stockpile-us-hospitals-union-2020-3?op=1




Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #703 on: March 27, 2020, 02:26:47 PM »
Based on empirical results, Imperial College model predictions have been slashed by over an order of magnitude.  For example, UK fatality estimate has been reduced from 500k to 20k or under.  Dr Brix is absolutely correct that there is no support for these apocolyptic models.  So now we are seeing large reductions in projected numbers. as predictions fail to materialize.   Danger now is people will stop following recommendations because the dooming and glooming has eroded public trust.  This is why worst case scenarios should never be presented without realistic projections.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489774-birx-cautions-against-inaccurate-models-predicting-signficant-coronavirus
Dr. Birx cautions against inaccurate models predicting significant coronavirus spread

White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx cautioned Thursday against models that predict alarming increases in coronavirus infections and deaths in the U.S.

Birx, speaking at a White House press briefing, singled out a recent study on the United Kingdom that originally predicted 500,000 people would die from the virus and has since been revised down to predict 20,000 deaths in the U.K. She said the data the government has collected does not show that 20 percent of the U.S. population would be infected with COVID-19, cautioning against predictions that say so.

“When people start talking about 20 percent of a population getting infected, it is very scary but we don’t have data that matches that based on the experience,” Birx said.

“There’s no … reality on the ground where we can see that 60 to 70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks,” Birx later continued.

Birx, an HIV/AIDS expert from the State Department who was brought on to coordinate the federal government’s response to the coronavirus, noted that 19 of the 50 U.S. states are showing a persistently low level of coronavirus cases despite reporting early infections. These 19 states each have fewer than 200 cases, Birx said, and are still working to actively contain the virus rather than mitigate its spread.

“That’s almost 40 percent of the country with extraordinarily low numbers and they are testing,” Birx said.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #704 on: March 27, 2020, 02:45:52 PM »
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/amp/
UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts
HEALTH 25 March 2020


The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government.

Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #705 on: March 27, 2020, 04:38:48 PM »
... Danger now is people will stop following recommendations because the dooming and glooming has eroded public trust. ...

Yeah, this is really tricky, especially because even 2 weeks ago we had way less data for making forecasts.  I think it was reasonable at that time to say "This COULD become a massive disaster so PLEASE help stop the spread."  Today, depending on whose data you pick, things might be looking a little less apocalyptic, but there are still a lot of people dying, no proven treatment, and no vaccine.  A doubling rate of mere days is still pretty awful.  We want a doubling rate of weeks or months before we can start feeling secure.

One thing I've been wondering (and maybe this has already been in the news and I missed it): Are there different sub-strains of the coronavirus that vary in their lethality?  Maybe this could explain why certain locations are getting hit really hard, and others aren't.

Offline fritz_monroe

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #706 on: March 27, 2020, 04:46:01 PM »
The local news has been covering the people that are getting very mild symptoms quite a bit, then they will have someone talking about how it was the worst thing they ever experienced.

Wife told me this morning that the kid that was on the news about Spring Break and how "if I get it, I get it, it's not going to stop my partying."  Apparently he got it.  Interviewed on the news.  I want to know if anyone is going to ask him how it feels to be the evidence that some people will use to talk about how horrible and self centered his generation is.

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #707 on: March 27, 2020, 05:25:55 PM »
WSJ:  ‘Terribly Traumatic.’ Patients, Doctors Confront Medical Rationing in the Coronavirus Era

Quote
But these plans are a hodgepodge, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of some 20 state policies publicly available. Some plans dictate that doctors color-code who gets ventilators, the breathing machines needed to treat the sickest coronavirus patients. In other instances, doctors could end up drawing names from hats to break ties, those involved in developing plans said. In still other cases, there isn’t any plan, leaving doctors and administrators to make choices as they go.

Some believe the color-coding system is imperfect, said Hassan Khouli, the chairman of the critical-care department at the Cleveland Clinic and a member of a task force that in 2015 developed New York state’s color-coding ventilator plan.

Under the system, “blues” are expected to die no matter what, “reds” get ventilators first because they are most likely to be saved, sicker “yellows” wait in line and “greens” can live without the devices.

But what is critical is having a plan, “so there is some fairness or transparency,” Dr. Khouli said. He noted that some states haven’t done so and face the prospect of justifying their decisions in the midst of a crisis.

Quote
Such decision-making has taken a toll on doctors in Italy, where a coronavirus epidemic has overwhelmed hospitals in some areas. In Bergamo, one of the hardest-hit areas, intensive care units have been taking almost no patients older than 70, doctors have said.

Quote
“I make these decisions every day,” said Francesco Rasulo, an intensive-care doctor at a hospital in Brescia, Italy, another hard-hit area near Bergamo. He said patients who don’t get ICU beds most likely wouldn’t have survived ventilation. They instead are given less-invasive treatment and, where needed, palliative care.

“If I had treated them, and not the others, both would have died,” Dr. Rasulo said. Making such decisions, he said, means taking home “every day my demons and my ghosts.”

Quote
“We have approved the technology that allows one ventilator to serve two patients—what they call splitting,” said New York’s Gov. Cuomo during a Thursday news conference, referring to a MacGyver-style approach that involves retrofitting tubing to connect multiple patients to the same ventilator. “It’s not ideal, but we believe it’s workable.”

Dr. Greg Neyman first envisioned the idea in 2006, but as far as he is aware, it has been tried just once, after the mass shooting in Las Vegas in 2017.

That case was simpler: the patients needed to be stabilized only for short periods before surgery. Covid-19 targets the lungs, so different patients require different ventilator settings and are harder to match. And sometimes they need breathing support for weeks.


I've got some knowledge of the New York color-code system, as I've been proof-reading my wife's adaptation for her institution this week.  I don't really like it.  But at least it's a plan that's transparent. 

California is currently working on a state-wide plan but no details, yet.


Ventilator splitting is more difficult than it sounds because it requires matching patients who require the exact same machine settings to share the same vent.  And most patients need more than 2 weeks of mechanical ventilation before they recover.

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #708 on: March 27, 2020, 06:27:02 PM »
If ethanol kills coronavirus on your hands, then it'll kill it in your body, right?  And methanol is almost like ethanol, right?

Times of India, 3/27/20: In Iran, false belief a poison fights coronavirus kills hundreds

Quote
...Iranian media reports nearly 300 people have been killed and more than 1,000 sickened so far by ingesting methanol across the Islamic Republic, where drinking alcohol is banned and where those who do rely on bootleggers. It comes as fake remedies spread across social media in Iran, where people remain deeply suspicious of the government after it downplayed the crisis for days before it overwhelmed the country. ...

...in messages forwarded and forwarded again, Iranian social media accounts in Farsi falsely suggested a British school teacher and others cured themselves of the coronavirus with whiskey and honey, based on a tabloid story from early February. Mixed with messages about the use of alcohol-based hand sanitizers, some wrongly believed drinking high-proof alcohol would kill the virus in their bodies. ...

That fear of the virus, coupled with poor education and internet rumors, saw dozens sickened by drinking bootleg alcohol containing methanol in Iran’s southwestern Khuzestan province and its southern city of Shiraz. ...

Other Muslim nations that ban their citizens from drinking also see such methanol poisoning, although Iran appears to be the only one in the pandemic so far to turn toward it as a fake cure. ...

Offline Mr. Bill

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #709 on: March 27, 2020, 06:54:45 PM »
3/27/20, American Thoracic Society: Some COVID-19 patients still have coronavirus after symptoms disappear: study

Quote
In a new study, researchers found that half of the patients they treated for mild COVID-19 infection still had coronavirus for up to eight days after symptoms disappeared. ...

"If you had mild respiratory symptoms from COVID-19 and were staying at home so as not to infect people, extend your quarantine for another two weeks after recovery to ensure that you don't infect other people," recommended corresponding author Lixin Xie, MD...

The researchers emphasized that all of these patients had milder infections and recovered from the disease, and that the study looked at a small number of patients [16]. They noted that it is unclear whether similar results would hold true for more vulnerable patients such as the elderly, those with suppressed immune systems and patients on immunosuppressive therapies. ...

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #710 on: March 27, 2020, 07:15:06 PM »
WSJ:  Italy’s Slow Progress in Fighting Coronavirus Is a Warning to West

Quote
More than 86,000 people in Italy have tested positive for the virus so far. But the head of Italy’s emergency services said up to 650,000 Italians may have been infected, many of them asymptomatic, meaning that even tighter quarantine measures could fail to stop the spread.

The country’s experience—which has served as the template for the lockdowns throughout much of the West and which followed several weeks of more limited quarantines in the country’s north—shows that such measures are very slow to produce results and may ultimately fail to stamp out the virus entirely.

That is instructive for other countries that must decide how hard to clamp down on their populations, and how to calculate the attendant economic damage. At the moment, the U.S. has a patchwork of policies while most of Europe is under some form of a lockdown.

“The restrictions had a big impact. It’s the only thing that allowed us to survive,” said Alessandro Triboldi, the head of Brescia Poliambulanza Hospital.

“But we need to get into our heads that we’re in this for the long haul,” he added. “In China, it took two months of complete closure to go down to zero contagions. What’s been done here so far has helped save (the northern region of) Lombardy but it’s not over yet.”

Quote
Italy’s experience shows that Western-style lockdowns that don’t involve the coercive measures of Wuhan may have to be maintained for longer than Western societies are willing to tolerate to see results.

“The issue is whether you can sustain a lockdown for the time it takes to work—three, four, five, six months or longer—while the economy goes south,” said Dr. Gabor Kelen, director of the Department of Emergency Medicine at Johns Hopkins Medicine.


Lockdowns of 3-6 months, or more, what country's economy can tolerate that?

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #711 on: March 27, 2020, 08:15:12 PM »
WSJ:  Italy’s Slow Progress in Fighting Coronavirus Is a Warning to West


Lockdowns of 3-6 months, or more, what country's economy can tolerate that?

None.  We would be better to take an in between position.   People can go out only if they are wearing the equivalent of a surgical mask, as anyone can be an asymptomitic carrier.  If everyone is wearing one, and the most vulnerable population ( over some age number like 62 or 65 ) stays in self quarantine, then we can have economic activites back, and we need them back well before a quarter or half a year.  Of course, continue with some people working at home if it makes sense. 

So, for the argument that we dont have enough masks, they are easily sewn, an equivalent to a surgical or procedure ( not sure which of the 2 is the preferred term) there are many patterns floating around and a veritable army of people sitting at home with sewing machines that WANT to help !  Every country that lets the people out and about masked, and only masked, do not have this quandry.  We have been doing a great disservice not having public discourse on various options like this !  No, instead we just ruin our economy.... 

Right now, while in our stay at homes, we should be talking about how we leave it !  With measures like that.   It is not that the disease goes away, it is that we slow it down while not ruining our society and economy. 

countries doing this :
 - South Korea
- Hong Kong
-Japan
- singapore
- Taiwan
- czech republic

The czech republic did not have any factory made masks either.  There are none to be bought.  So, everyone that can sew has been sewing them and giving them away.  We could do this !  This is not hard.

Yes, I know these countries also use other measure, including some time with quarantines ( stay-at-home) but the mask use is how to keep some of the essential going while getting this under control, and whenit is more under control, more people go about their business with masks



https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30229968/

Quote
It was found that a 50% compliance in donning the device resulted in a significant (at least 50% prevalence and 20% cumulative incidence) reduction in risk for fitted and unfitted N95 respirators, high-filtration surgical masks, and both low-filtration and high-filtration pediatric masks. An 80% compliance rate essentially eliminated the influenza outbreak.

So, signifcant results with only 50% compliance
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 08:21:02 PM by mountainmoma »

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #712 on: March 27, 2020, 08:56:33 PM »
NYT:  For Dr. Deborah Birx, Urging Calm Has Come With Heavy Criticism

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Dr. Birx’s comments, especially those dismissing ventilator shortages, startled some health experts. While most hospitals might have sufficient supplies at the moment, many worry about a crush of patients in the very near future.

Dr. Howard Bauchner, the editor in chief of The Journal of the American Medical Association, warned Friday of “a potential tsunami coming” on a video call with hundreds of other physicians about rationing ventilators and critical care.

Dr. Ryan A. Stanton, a board member at the American College of Emergency Physicians, said Dr. Birx sounded like “the builders of the Titanic saying the ship can’t sink.”

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After talking to New York officials, Dr. Birx said she had been told that there were still intensive care beds and “over 1,000 or 2,000” ventilators still available. She also dismissed news stories of hospitals drafting blanket do-not-resuscitate orders for critically ill Covid-19 patients.

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In meetings, Mr. Trump appears to prefer Dr. Birx’s genial approach over Dr. Fauci’s blunt talk.

Mr. Trump and several White House officials view Dr. Fauci with some level of skepticism, believing he tends too much to his own public persona and has gone “rogue” on messaging. Dr. Birx, they think, is more willing to be patient with the president’s interruptions and theorizing about medicine.

Among Mr. Trump’s frustrations with Dr. Fauci has been his unwillingness to embrace the malaria drugs that Mr. Trump has celebrated, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine. Dr. Fauci has been much more vocal about their risks, and dismissed potential evidence of their success in treating the coronavirus as anecdotal.

Offline mountainmoma

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #713 on: March 28, 2020, 12:53:21 AM »
I wonder how acurate the model for this is ?  https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

This is an interactive chart where you can choose which state, which I found helpful, the country is very large, by choosing which state it was easier to see where the big problems of lack of hospital beds are, as it is not all over, according to this anyways. 

It also projects peak of the wave of the illness, this wave anyway.  Which is sooner for New York, in a couple weeks, with california more end of april.  SO it projects New York over the hump by and of April, but it also shows New York having about 1/4th of the hospital beds it needs.  It shows Californa and Oregon pretty much having enough beds, or close, and over this hump of the outbreak by June.  But, you cant just put LA or Portland, for example, patients in a hospital far away, so Obviously we realy do have regional shortages that are going to be bad. 

 I pray for New York, New Jersey, Louisiana right now

Offline FreeLancer

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #714 on: March 28, 2020, 02:06:51 AM »
I wonder how acurate the model for this is ?  https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I wonder, too.  It would be nice if you could drill down to specific regions within each state.


According to their projections the North East is going to get hit hard, as is Michigan.  Never would have expected Indiana and Missouri to be facing crisis shortfalls.  Louisiana and Georgia are the southern hot spots.


Actually the West looks way better than I would have expected, except for Nevada. 
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 04:34:42 AM by FreeLancer »

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #715 on: March 28, 2020, 08:50:24 AM »
Any idea how long each person has to stay on a ventilator?

The reason I ask is that, if we send all our ventilators to NY to help with their current crisis, then in about 2 weeks, when other places are desperate for more, there won't be any available to give them, as NY won't be able to send them back yet, right? Because the sick people in NY will still be on those ventilators...

So, essentially, where those ventilators get sent now determines which people will live and which will die (geographically, I mean).

We know that many other places (like Chicago, California, Atlanta, New Orleans, etc.) will be in a similar situation to New York's in just a few weeks... do we really think that there will be a slam-dunk treatment or cure that will make those ventilators unnecessary elsewhere in that time period? Or do we bet that the self-isolation measures will prevent spikes in number of patients in the rest of the country? And that the new manufacture of new ventilators will be able to meet the need by then?

It's a terrible situation and moral dilemma.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #716 on: March 28, 2020, 09:34:32 AM »
So, essentially, where those ventilators get sent now determines which people will live and which will die (geographically, I mean).

Well, not to be macabre about it, but from anecdotal reports few who go on ventilators recover. The hope is that this will improve with the antiviral  treatments. One of the reported benefits of the treatments is it stops progression before a ventilator is needed.  So in countries like South Korea where treatment is aggresive, many are reportedly on oxygen nostril tubes rather than ventilators.

To answer your question directly, 2 to 3 weeks is a regularly cited time on ventilators. 

Offline Morning Sunshine

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #717 on: March 28, 2020, 09:58:10 AM »
Well, not to be macabre about it, but from anecdotal reports few who go on ventilators recover. The hope is that this will improve with the antiviral  treatments. One of the reported benefits of the treatments is it stops progression before a ventilator is needed.  So in countries like South Korea where treatment is aggresive, many are reportedly on oxygen nostril tubes rather than ventilators.

To answer your question directly, 2 to 3 weeks is a regularly cited time on ventilators.

so.  the whole ventilator fight is over how to extend someone's life a few days or weeks; not to cure them.

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #718 on: March 28, 2020, 10:13:21 AM »
so.  the whole ventilator fight is over how to extend someone's life a few days or weeks; not to cure them.

That is not what I am getting from medical people in my area.

The way it was explained to me, a patient's lung functions deteriorate and it is not transferring oxygen efficiently.  Their respiration increases to compensate.  Over time the exertion of rapid breathing fatigues the patient.  Eventually they cannot sustain the respiration rate.  Oxygen helps some.  However, when they cannot sustain adequate respiration due to fatigue, they must be put on a ventilator to breath for them.  In time, many patients will fight off the virus and their lung function increases to the point that they dont need the ventilator.  I am told that younger patients with no other risk factors have a very good chance of doing just that.

Obviously the whole thing is a huge shock to the patient's system and can cause other issues.  The typical hospital risks like infections are always present also.

But it is too pat to say that ventilators dont really help.

Offline iam4liberty

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 (a.k.a. 2019-nCoV) outbreak in China
« Reply #719 on: March 28, 2020, 10:53:30 AM »
Everything I have seen puts the rate of someone with Covid-19 being removed alive from ventilator intubation at less  than 20% (and those removed don't necessarily survive).   I would love to hear some positive news otherwise. 
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 11:00:48 AM by iam4liberty »